Premier League swaps: title race, Champions League, Europe and state of relegation with one week to go

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This article was updated following Brentford’s 3-2 win over Everton.


The Premier League has entered its final week of the season and there is plenty to play for in the few remaining fixtures.

Manchester City’s mistake in their 2-2 draw at West Ham United on Sunday means the title is still on the line, although Liverpool need Pep Guardiola’s men to lose points in their final game of the season. want to win a memorable domestic treble. .

North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal, meanwhile, are in contention for the final Champions League spot, with Antonio Conte’s side ahead after winning the derby last Thursday and 1-0 win over Burnley Sunday. Arsenal will face Newcastle United on Monday night.

Behind them, Manchester United and West Ham are vying for qualification for the Europa League and the Europa Conference League.

And at the very bottom of the table, one from Leeds United, Burnley and Everton will join Norwich City and Watford in the Championship.

Athleticism breaks down everything you need to know as the Premier League battles enter their final stages.


The title race

City dropped the ball against West Ham, with defensive errors leading them 2-0 down at half-time at the London Stadium. Although they came back to 2-2, a late Riyad Mahrez penalty miss meant Liverpool still had a chance to add the Premier League title to their Carabao Cup and FA Cup wins.

Jurgen Klopp’s side are four points behind City with two games to play. Given their lower goal difference, they realistically have to win both games and hope City don’t win again on the final day of the season.

Liverpool face a trip to Southampton on Tuesday for their current game, before hosting Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield next Sunday.

At the same time, City will host Aston Villa – who are managed by former Liverpool great Steven Gerrard. How he would love to ruin City’s day.

The title race

Pos Team generalist Points GD

1

37

90

72

2

36

86

65


The Battle of the First Four

After beating Burnley 1-0 on Sunday, Spurs are two points clear of Arsenal in that all-important fourth place.

However, Arsenal have a game in hand against their rivals, with Mikel Arteta’s side traveling to Newcastle on Monday night. Win this and they will come back fourth with their destiny in their hands.

In the final match of the season, Spurs face Norwich at Carrow Road, while Arsenal host Everton. Norwich are already relegated and Everton would be safe when they take on Arsenal if they beat Crystal Palace on Thursday. Anything but a win against Palace will force Everton to secure a result to secure on the final day.

It should be noted that third-placed Chelsea could, in theory, drop out of the top four. If Arsenal beat Newcastle, Chelsea need two points from their last two games (against Leicester City and Watford) to confirm a place in the top four but, given their vastly superior goal difference on the two northern sides of London, one point would suffice.

The Battle of the First Four

Pos Team generalist Points GD

3

36

70

42

4

37

68

24

5

36

66

11


The fight for the sixth

It might not be the most glamorous battle as we enter the closing stages of the 2021-22 campaign, but there is a significant difference between finishing sixth and seventh.

The sixth-placed team will join Spurs or Arsenal in the Europa League while the seventh-placed team will take part in the Europa Conference League next season.

United, who have not played since losing 4-0 at Brighton & Hove Albion on May 7, sit sixth. They are two points clear of West Ham, who themselves have guaranteed European football again after their draw with City – which came at the same time as Wolves’ draw with Norwich on Sunday.

United’s much worse goal difference means Ralf Rangnick’s side must win their last game — a trip to the Palace of Patrick Vieira — to secure sixth place.

Meanwhile, David Moyes’ West Ham travel to Brighton, who hold the Premier League’s fourth-worst home record.

The fight for the sixth

Pos Team generalist Points GD

6

37

58

1

7

37

56

11


The Battle of Survival

Everton led twice against Brentford on Sunday but eventually lost 3-2. A victory would have seen them secure Premier League football next season.

Burnley lost 1-0 to Spurs earlier today as Leeds’ late equalizer against Brighton knocked them out of the relegation zone.

It will be a trying week for Leeds, however, as Burnley and Everton have games in progress at the West Yorkshire side.

Burnley travel to Villa and Everton host Palace, with both games taking place on Thursday.

With Everton two points ahead of Burnley and one ahead of Leeds, a win against Palace will ensure their survival.

Thanks to their superior goal difference, a midweek draw for Burnley would see them leap above Leeds going into the final game of the season. Four points from their last two games would essentially guarantee Burnley safety.

Brentford have already played an important role in the battle for survival following their 3-2 win at Everton, and will be center stage again when they host Leeds on Sunday. If Burnley fail to beat Palace, a win for Leeds in west London would guarantee them safety.

Elsewhere, Everton travel to Arsenal and Burnley host Newcastle.

The Battle of Survival

Pos Team generalist Points GD

16

36

36

-20

17

37

35

-38

18

34

34

-18


What do the statistics say?

While every group of fans will have their own ideas about which team is guaranteed to finish in the top four and play championship football next season, the good folks at FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers to give the probability of positions possible finals (in percentage terms).

The scheduled final table

Planned Pos Team Prediction % Current position Current general practitioner Current points current GD

1

86

1

37

90

72

2

86

2

36

86

65

3

98

3

36

70

42

4

59

4

37

68

24

5

59

5

36

66

11

6

79

6

37

58

1

7

79

7

37

56

11

8

32

8

37

51

-3

9

21

9

36

48

0

ten

26

ten

37

48

-4

11

23

12

36

45

4

12

32

11

37

46

-7

13

40

13

36

44

-1

14

60

14

36

43

-21

15

79

15

36

40

-20

16

51

16

36

36

-20

17

35

18

36

34

-18

18

56

17

37

35

-38

19

93

19

37

23

-42

20

93

20

37

22

-56


How are the European places working this season?

The top four Premier League teams automatically qualify for next season’s Champions League group stage.

Europa League group stage places go to the fifth team and FA Cup winners, with the Carabao Cup winners earning a place in the Europa Conference League play-offs.

As Liverpool have won the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup, an additional Europa League place goes to the sixth-placed team and the Conference League place goes to the team that finishes seventh.


And what about prize money?

There is a lot to play for even for teams that are not fighting for survival or for European places.

Right here, Athleticism explains how every place counts in the Premier League final draw with a breakdown of the prize money on offer.

(Top photos: Getty Images)


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